Discussion about this post

User's avatar
David Harris's avatar

Thank you for your kind words and for investing in the piece. I will probably share more thoughts later to your response when I have more time to write (and I will also benefit from having some time to process it), but for starters 1) I guess there are different ways of liking in addition to different ways of knowing, and 2) it is affirming to know that a sense of wonder is not something where one starts life with a full tank, and it just slowly oozes out of you. I think some people need kids for that rebirth.

Expand full comment
Robbie Marriage's avatar

Whenever I see David Harris has written a new longform, I know I'm going to have something juicy to chew on.

Reading this piece reminded me of a passage in Soccernomics, which only puts words to two things that everybody in their hearts already knows anyway. First, the fundamental rule of sports analysis: don't trust your eyes.

If you're looking to discuss a sport strictly with the maximum amount of correctness, the correct course of action is not to watch any game at all. The numbers paint a much clearer picture of what a player is good at and what they are not. Actually watching a game will only throw you off the scent. For instance, when we spoke about Joey Votto under your line drive piece. Watching Joey Votto for years gave me the general impression of him being the supreme line drive hitter, when in fact he hardly ever hit more doubles than HRs. Secondary example, somebody like Brett Kollman can present CJ Stroud making some fantastic read and fitting the ball into a tight window for a clutch first down, but this obfuscates the fact that, on the whole, CJ Stroud is extremely inaccurate as a passer.

There are some shortcomings the human brain is not capable of overcoming. In sports, this primarily manifests when looking at a sheet of numbers, and contrasting the results to what we have in our heads from having watched the player play. Humans almost always default to the visual perception, despite the fact that numbers see everything, but the human brain only remembers what it wants to. Humans are not built to cognise that they just don't know everything in the way that a sheet of numbers does. Therefore, they will allow their biased visual perception to take precedence over the unbiased interpretation of the meaning of statistics. This leads their analyses of what they're watching to oftentimes be worse than analyses of things they have not watched, in a sports context.

However, the contrast to this is when you have no interest in being correct, and only have interest in enjoying the game, the best course of action is to not look at any scoresheet at all. No statistics whatsoever. I have actually made a rule for myself this season that rbsdm.com MUST stay closed when I'm watching the games, because if I were to actually open it, I may discover that by estimated WP this game is I'm watching is already quite close to being over, or perhaps a player who I thought had been having a good performance has actually been quite bad (Sam Darnold has often been a particular offender in this regard).

This is why I quite dislike the fancy Amazon Prime broadcasts which incorporate actually useful statistics (like EPA and Win Probability). I prefer the mostly meaningless passing yards, passing TDs, etc., because they're so easy to ignore. In my experience, statistics during the game have never enhanced my enjoyment of any game. Leave the statistics for at least a few days afterwards. Allow your interpretation of what you've just watched to gestate, in the absence of any proof to the contrary, at least for a little while. This is my opinion anyways.

I'd like to make clear that I have no understanding of the inner workings of any sport. None whatsoever. I'm not a tape grinder. I've never played any sport at a high level. I'm much more a stat junkie, with a lifetime of training (as an economist) in interpreting the true meaning of numbers on a page, but even in this aspect I'm far behind the curve of the true cutting edge of analytical thought. In general, I elect for the same balance of everybody else. A balance between knowledge of the game (which, in my opinion, comes exclusively from statistical analysis), and enjoying the game (which, in my opinion, comes exclusively from watching the game).

Expand full comment
2 more comments...

No posts