Your note about Naylor’s thievery was too interesting to just read past so I looked up his six steals. I didn’t record who was catching (probably a mistake), but without video, I don’t see any commonalities. But it was fun to play you with a tiny mini-baseball question. Here’s what I found:
3/30: Stole 3rd on double steal in 8th inning of a game they led 7-6 off Eli Morgan
Thank you. I looked up the normal rates, and where Naylor has taken more than the average advantage has been, first, in stealing in games where the difference in score has been greater than 4 runs. He has two such steals, while in 2024, they only made up 6.4% of steals. Then he has the two steals of 3rd. Steals of 3rd only comprised 12.9% of 2nd/3rd steals last year.
A steal off the notoriously easy Adam Ottavino is a red flag. Naylor was guaranteed to make it, what with the score difference 6 runs, I would say (the 5+ success rate was 84.3% last year). But it is of course natural that steals slant toward poor defenders. That is the probability, after all.
Naylor has been caught twice this year. One was in a 2-run game, off a starting pitcher (the success rate against starters was 76.7% in 2024, versus 81.9% against relievers). The other caught stealing was a so-called attempt of home, and came in the 11th inning.
Naylor is one of six guys to get caught going for home this year, versus five successes. This is in line with last year; base runners were 26 of 65 going for home.
I absolutely learned from following up off your comment, so thank you.
This is great stuff! I realized last night before bed that I hadn’t considered caught stealing, so learning he has two adds to the story. The two 3rd base burglaries definitely stood out, but I love the added context.
It’s also funny because I did understand Ottavino to be slow to the plate even before your response. His reputation precedes him.
Your note about Naylor’s thievery was too interesting to just read past so I looked up his six steals. I didn’t record who was catching (probably a mistake), but without video, I don’t see any commonalities. But it was fun to play you with a tiny mini-baseball question. Here’s what I found:
3/30: Stole 3rd on double steal in 8th inning of a game they led 7-6 off Eli Morgan
4/3: Stole 3rd in 6th down 9-3 off Adam Ottavino
4/6: Stole 2nd in 8th down 5-3 off Jorge Lopez
4/13: Stole 2nd in 7th up 3-2 off Grant Anderson
5/2: Stole 2nd in 3rd down 1-0 off Jesus Luzardo
5/4: Stole 2nd in 5th up 7-2 off Orion Kerkering
I don’t have to tell you, but baseball is fun.
Thank you. I looked up the normal rates, and where Naylor has taken more than the average advantage has been, first, in stealing in games where the difference in score has been greater than 4 runs. He has two such steals, while in 2024, they only made up 6.4% of steals. Then he has the two steals of 3rd. Steals of 3rd only comprised 12.9% of 2nd/3rd steals last year.
A steal off the notoriously easy Adam Ottavino is a red flag. Naylor was guaranteed to make it, what with the score difference 6 runs, I would say (the 5+ success rate was 84.3% last year). But it is of course natural that steals slant toward poor defenders. That is the probability, after all.
Naylor has been caught twice this year. One was in a 2-run game, off a starting pitcher (the success rate against starters was 76.7% in 2024, versus 81.9% against relievers). The other caught stealing was a so-called attempt of home, and came in the 11th inning.
Naylor is one of six guys to get caught going for home this year, versus five successes. This is in line with last year; base runners were 26 of 65 going for home.
I absolutely learned from following up off your comment, so thank you.
This is great stuff! I realized last night before bed that I hadn’t considered caught stealing, so learning he has two adds to the story. The two 3rd base burglaries definitely stood out, but I love the added context.
It’s also funny because I did understand Ottavino to be slow to the plate even before your response. His reputation precedes him.
Glad my comment was useful to you, too.
Thanks David!