Notes Week Ending 8/10
8/5 N1: The last time I blogged about the standings was after games of 6/9. In eight weeks, we’ve gone from an “under .500” heavy league to an “over .500” heavy league. Then, only 10 teams were above .500; now, 18 are.
Part of the change is likely that the Yankees, Orioles, and Phillies, who were all playing over .650 baseball, are a combined 67-74 since. Who knows which came first, their mediocre play or other teams stepping up, but we could say that their drop-off has meant room for others near them. Even the Guardians, who were also playing .650+ baseball at the close of games on 6/9 but whose subsequent play has generated less concern, are just 25-22 since.
These four teams still have the four best records in MLB, although the Dodgers are lurking, as are the Twins, Brewers, and Royals, to a degree. The top four are the only teams on pace for 95+ wins. That seemed to me unusual, but actually, only four teams made it to 95 wins a year ago (Braves, Orioles, Dodgers, and Rays). 2022 and 2021 had only five 95+ win teams. What is clearly weird at the moment, along with the failure of a team to assert itself offensively, is that we don’t have a team on pace to win 100 games.
8/5 N2: Boasting Blake Snell, Hayden Birdsong, Kyle Harrison, and Robbie Ray, the power potential of the Giants’ starting rotation is simply dizzying. Ray struck out 9 over 5 on Sunday, and all of the others have had a game of at least 11 strikeouts since the all-star break. I don’t know whether I’m more impressed by Snell’s no-hitter, or the 15 strikeouts he had in 6 innings the start before.
Surely, I thought, the Giants’ starters must have the best SO rate in MLB since the all-star break? Actually, they are in basically a dead heat with the Astros. The Giants’ starters have struck out 33.4% of batters, versus the Astros 32.6. The Astros beat them in SO-per-9, 12.3 to 12.0. The Astros retain their position if we take into consideration total strikeouts: per start, since the all-star break, they have faced an average of 22.7 batters, the Giants 21.5.
Digging into how the Astros have done this, into which starting pitchers have been responsible and in what measure, I understood better why this trend has fallen under the radar for me. It has been a remarkable team effort. Valdez, Arrighetti (12 SO on Sunday), Blanco, and Brown all have at least 20 SO since the all-star break, and at least 3 more SO than innings. However, none rank among the top 5 in MLB in strikeouts during this period, and only Valdez and Arrighetti rank in the top 20. We also need to include Yusei Kikuchi’s 11-strikeout Astros debut Friday in capturing the strikeout performance. His 141 strikeouts between Toronto and Houston would make for the most on the Astros if he had been with them all season, and e ups the staff’s strikeout potential.
Whatever mojo has been going on in Houston over the last couple of weeks, not only did Kikuchi seem to catch it, but the Houston bullpen has also apparently been in on the fun. If you look at the team’s total strikeouts in its game logs since July 24, it’s like we’re looking at J.R. Richard and Nolan Ryan going every night, evidently possessed with the durability of Christy Mathewson and Iron Man Joe McGinnity. Working backward, the team has had 15, 12, 14, 11, 14, 11, 11, 16, 15, and 10 strikeouts over their most recent games. They are only 5-5 over this span, with a 3.50 E.R.A.
A bit off topic, it’s also fun to look at those strikeout leaders since the all-star break. With 30 Ks, Snell has a share of the lead, the Guardians’ Gavin Williams having the other half. Snell and Williams are followed by Spencer Schwellenback and Nick Pivetta, who have 29 strikeouts.
Pivetta is proof that strikeouts aren’t everything! In there is a game in which he struck out 6 in less than 3 innings, but also gave up 10 hits and 8 runs. The Red Sox went down to the Rockies, 20-7.
8/6: I will note, in light of the analysis of relievers in extra innings I did which had Emmanuel Clase rated at just about the 33rd percentile, that Clase was charged with the loss last night against the Diamondbacks, when he pitched the 10th. How much one can blame him for a sacrifice hit, sacrifice fly sequence is debatable, although perhaps at least the sacrifice fly does point out that he doesn’t get strikeouts, and that is not good in the Manfred Man scenario. What has typically gotten him in these extra-inning games, however, has been singles. He didn’t give up any singles last night, let alone any hits, and he hasn’t been doing that on the year, either — just 4.6 (!) per 9 innings, and a .193 BAbip. His strikeout rate from 2022-2024 hasn’t varied that much season to season, and is 8.5/9 overall, but what has separated his 2022 and 2024 seasons from his 2023 season has been his hit rate. It was 8.4/9 in 2023, while just like this year, in 2022, he was limiting hits with the best of the strikeout pitchers — 5.3 per 9. But in extra innings, Clase’s performance shutting off hits has been more like his 2023 season. (Granted, that this is all in limited extra innings, although Clase had pitched 20 1/3 since 2020 at the time of my analysis, the most of any reliever.)
8/7 N1: A few thought questions from someone who has not gone into fielding statistics as much as he should. There are probably simple answers to these questions, but I don’t know right off where to find them.
I think, if I had been asked to guess, before we were made wise to the value of catcher framing, that I would have thought a first baseman’s success rate at scooping balls in the dirt would have been more important than a catcher’s value in “stealing” strikes. Evidently, it isn’t a fraction as important. That said, why isn’t this regularly chronicled? When I go on Baseball Savant for first baseman, I just see their range evaluated, which presumably does not include scooping, and logically should not. Is scooping not tracked because lots of infielder throws in the dirt are intentionally in the dirt, to give the first baseman an easy one hop, when the infielder cannot quickly get the ball all the way there?
In any event, it sure seems to be that a first baseman’s performance scooping can be evaluated, if not easily with a universally-applied formula. What is his percentage of scoops with different infielders, for example? Analysts could throw out the infielders who use the “one hop” as part of their repertoire. And certainly, there are an obvious subset of plays when infielders are not intentionally throwing the ball in the dirt, and we can see what the first baseman’s rate of scooping was on these playes? Surely as well, the velocity of a throw in the dirt affects its chances of being scooped, and this can be evaluated, and then applied to the record of first baseman scooping?
With catcher framing, I understand that each stolen strike has a certain run value. But is the value the same for first and second strikes as third strikes? That would be surprising. I understand that it might be luck if a catcher does better in getting third strikes than in getting first and second strikes, but shouldn’t this nonetheless be looked at? As far as I know, third strike catcher framing value isn’t analyzed as a separate variable.
8/7 N2: Jeremiah Estrada finished off the Padres 6-0 win against the Buccos Tuesday by striking out the side. Nothing new for him — with a difference of more than 26 between his strikeouts and innings, among pitchers who have registed more than 2/3rds of their games in relief this season, that is bested only by Mason Miller. Estrada’s differential is tied with Josh Hader.
Miller: 40.2 IP, 14 BB (11 UIBB), 70 SO
Estrada: 43.1 IP, 14 BB (13 UIBB), 70 SO
Miller certainly has the better true strikeout rate, I’ll admit. Not only has he pitched 2.2 fewer innings, he’s given up 20 hits, while Estrada has yielded 31.
Who is Estrada? He’s not yet 26 (and a couple months younger than Miller), so he might be a name we should know. He threw in 17 games for the Cubs over 2022 and 2023, but they released him over the off-season. His average fastball velo is 97, and he throws it 57% of the time. Otherwise, he mixes sliders and splitters about equally, but Baseball Savant tells us he’s gotten better results with the slider: it has, in fact, on a runs value rate basis, been his best pitch this season.
8/9 N1: Did a double take seeing that Luis Arraez is only hitting .303 but leading the NL in hitting. Sort of a title only on paper. That’s 7th-best in MLB. Individual league rankings are of increasingly dubious value, clear only when we look at playoff races. But if you got rid of them, would you, for the sake of principle, have to get rid of league MVPs and other league awards as well? I suppose if the name of the game is ultimately about the postseason, one can make an argument for keeping league awards, as one gets there through beating the other teams in the league. And I do understand that baseball would lose something issuing fewer awards, which would be the upshot of getting rid of individual league ones.
More than one player in each category needs to be recognized at season’s end, and doing this by having a “top two”, let alone honoring a first- and a second-place finisher, isn’t going to satisfy anybody. There will always be a first and a second, as long as there is published league voting. Football’s Pro Bowl squads were pretty successful in not distinguishing when starters were simply named at each position, however, like the two starting receivers.
As for the precedent of not distinguishing between the AL and NL, the Cy Young from its inception in ‘56 through ‘66 comes to mind. The first two players to win Rookie of the Year, Robinson and Al Dark, also had to beat out all American Leaguers.
8/9 N2: Cal Raleigh has 53 runs created, leading the Mariners. I know catchers are hitting better and playing more, getting more DH days, but this is a catcher with a .739 OPS. Raleigh is one of nine players with 53 RC, and he ranks 76th in MLB. Next on the team is Julio Rodriguez, who has 48 runs created. He was hitting better before his injury, but has certainly been punchless, and has a .687 OPS. The 3rd-most RC any Mariner has is 39 (Luke Raley), placing him in a tie for 158th in MLB.
My first reaction was that this was remarkably bad, having only two players in the top 150 in MLB in runs created and 3 in the top 158, but upon reflection, I’d have to look into it. After all, if such players were evenly spread, each team would have only 5 players in the top 150. The Mariners do only have one of the top 100.
8/10 N1: Bailey Ober is 4th in MLB in WHIP. Hope he hasn’t flown under the radar for you.
8/10 N2: Three hits for Anthony Rendon yesterday, but still no home runs on the season, in 139 AB.
8/10 N3: An oddity that the Tigers have hit 35 triples, giving them a healthy lead over any other team (the three teams behind them have 29, 29, and 28), yet rank just 27th in MLB in stolen bases. They haven’t even stolen at a good rate (77.8%). The big triple hitters in MLB this year are first guys of whom you are probably aware (Duran, 13; Witt, 10; Carroll, 10), and then Mike Yastrzemski, who sneaks up with 9, despite only having 11 doubles. No one on the Tigers has more than 5 triples, although five guys on the team have either 4 or 5 (Riley Greene, Matt Vierling, Wenceel Perez, Kerry Carpenter, and Zack McKinstry). While all of these players do rate at better than the 60th percentile on sprint speed, only center fielder Vierling rates at anything like a burner (89th percentile), and I think it is pretty clear this is not a fast team. I’m wondering if they come to their triples through hustle, in which case A.J. Hinch and the culture are to be commended. The most likely explanation for a leading triples total without the speed to suggest it is usually a good triples home ballpark, but that is not the explantion in this case, or at least not for the Tigers this year, as they have hit 19 of their 35 triples on the road.