Notes Week Ending 5/24

5/18 N1: The virus that is “baseball tools speak” entered new crevices when interim Orioles manager Tony Mansolino described his fallen boss this way: “It’s the most wins in baseball last couple of years, it’s a manager of the year.”

What?

Ladies and gentlemen, we have gotten to a point. One does not start off speaking this poorly, one must stand on the shoulders of others. It’s particularly funny because it’s a time when one would want to be sensitive, and not describing a manager as a tool’s kit. In fairness, Mansolino did start off saying, “We’re going to miss Brandon in a lot of ways. To me, he did a great job here,” before the tic got a hold of him.

I don’t know why you would, but if you want more of me raving on this subject, look up my 2024 post, “The Persnickety One Talks Himself Off A Ledge.”

5/18 N2: Now within 1 of the AL strikeout lead, and 2nd in the league in hits-per-9 innings, Carlos Rodon has to be one of the starting pitcher bright spots of the season.

5/18 N3: Certainly when it comes to guys who can steal bases even without much sped, Kyle Tucker is right up there. He’s 12 for 12 this year, really taking it to a new level, since his 11 for 11 last year came in 78 games. His sprint speed is well in the bottom half, 29th percentile, after averaging the 28th percentile from 2022-2024.

Another surprising aspect of his base stealing is that he doesn’t have that long-term deal yet. Yes, a good base-stealing year might increase the dollar figure infinitesimally, but the main thing in his self interest would be not to get hurt. He’s got quite a bit to lose, and not a lot to gain, running as he does.

5/18 N4: White Sox first baseman Tim Elko, now in his second week of big league duty, is the first Elko to play in the big leagues since a Pete participated for 16 games with the Cubs during the war. I wonder what the biggest interval in years between last-name appearances is? There would come a time when you’d think the ship had sailed.

Of course, the question if these two are related nags, but I didn’t run across that. I suppose the Ralph Kiner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa thing is in my mind. They are the only Kiners, and distantly related.

5/18 N5: Note the positive difference now between Chase Meidroth’s OBP (.375) and his batting average (.286). He drew 105 walks in the minors last year, and 80 ninor league walks in his first full season in 2023. It doesn’t always carry over, but hopefully walking is part of what he does.

5/18 N6: O.k. So I just ran into Spencer Torkelson, only preceded by Red Torkelson, who had a 7.66 E.R.A. for the Indians in 4 games in 1917. The Baseball Reference photo of Red is of him in a grainy tux….Against all odds, I see he landed a SABR Bio.

5/18 N7: It took just an hour and 49 for the Cardinals to beat the Royals yesterday, and the game didn’t even have the advantage of being an 8 ½ inning game, as the Cardinals were the road team. Ryan Helsley needed 12 pitches to save the 9th in 1-2-3 fashion, although those 12 pitches were actually over the per-inning average (11.7) for the teams in the other innings.

5/18 N8: 4 for 47 this month with a home run, a walk, and 15 SO, Kristian Campbell has tumbled in every category. Except for showing a slight tendency to strike out frequently, Campbell’s March/April (.301/.407/.495) was pretty much without weakness. He’s yet to do anything at home (.461 OPS) or against left-handers (.480 OPS), so maybe those things are good signs. Hasn’t exploited the obvious opportunities.

5/18 N9: Hey, the Rockies do lead the majors in something (and something good). Triples! With Jordan Beck and Mickey Moniak both having 4, they have 13.

5/18 N10: I’m interested in Nick Pivetta’s start Saturday. He pitched 6 innings (stellar ones I might add), but his cross of 7 strikeouts on just 9 whiffs seemed inconsistent: namely, it seemed that it normally takes more whiffs in a start to get that many strikeouts.

I don’t have the exact whiff count on the season, but I estimated it at 23705, while the exact strikeouts, 11319, we know. So, yes, with 9 whiffs, Pivetta figured to have 4.3 strikeouts, not 7.

Did he then get a number of looking strikeouts? Checking the play-by-play for the game, he had 4 versus the patient Mariners. In an average game, there are 1.98 looking strikeouts. Pivetta, again, registered his in 6 innings.

Sonny Grey is the clear leader in looking strikeouts this year, with 23. That’s in 9 starts, which maybe doesn’t seem that much over the MLB average. But he’s only pitched 50 innings, so he’s getting 4.14 looking ks per 9, which is far above the MLB average.

Pivetta is up to 17 looking ks now.

How I came to my estimate of 23705 whiffs through Saturday (5/17)’s action:

BREF showed 127447 strikes. .186 of strikes are swinging. So that’s 23705.142.

5/19 N1: To make sure everyone is aware of the news first, Venezuelan-born Phillies pitcher Jose Alvarado has been suspended for 80 games subsequent to a positive test for testosterone. If you have your guard up at all, you are aware that an extremely disproportionate percentage of players testing positive for banned substances in recent years have been Dominican, but this is never mentioned, and apparently not something we are allowed to talk about.

Since 2017, using Wikipedia’s list, here are the facts. There have been 24 suspended players. Country of birth.

DR 18

USA 4

Venezuela 1

Curacao 1

Wikpedia, citing the Baseball Alamanc, has 2022 Dominican representation in the major leagues as a whole at 11%.

I am quite sure that, if we went and broke down the whole list, the trend predates 2017. But I use only 2017 on because the last six suspensions of 2016 were all of American born players, which certainly seems like something different. Six Americans in one year, then four over the past 8+ years.

It seems there are different drug pipelines and cultures in the US and the DR. Did a problem with PED use get worse for Dominican players after 2017, or did some of their lines of cover-up crumble?

One of the reasons I think it is important to air the trend is because I think not doing so contributes to its existence. Baseball needs to have is feet to the fire. But maybe baseball is doing a better job of finding these PEDs favored by DR players than it was before 2017, even while we just let them do what they want, in the way they want, and reveal as much as they want.

It would also be nice if some Dominican player would speak up understanding that the actions of a few damage the reputation of all, and the problem (even if it is just a small one) needs to be addressed in the community. Just some sort of condemnation in some form from somebody would be welcome, of a kind that goes beyond particular cases (Tatis certainly got plenty of heat).

Most of the righteousness I hear is about how wonderful the penalties are. I can’t say there’s not much thought on PEDS, but there certainly isn’t much discussion, and that’s not healthy. I understand that some people are not grown-up enough not to have good discussion of the subject.

Things are always evolving — no Dominican-born players have tested positive this year, after all.

5/19 N2: Mick Abel’s accomplishment in his debut seemed to be being framed in terms of his 9 strikeouts, but he also walked none, and threw 62 of his 84 pitches for strikes. I was virtually certain that strike percentage would prove to be a lot more notable than the 9 strikeouts if one did the research.

It was a clear win for 73.80% strikes, but maybe not a runaway. That was the 35th-best percentage in a start this year, ranking it in the 97th percentile. Nine strikeouts or more has been done 107 times this year, and is in the 92nd percentile.

Of those 107 9+ strikeout games, 58 have been 9 exactly, leaving 49 10+ games. Cole Ragans has 4 of them, Tarik Skubal 2.

Ragans has started 9 games. So he’s getting 10+ strikeouts 44% of the time, compared to the 3.5% big league average. Not Nolan Ryan stuff, I imagine, but impressive.

In the last couple of years, I’ve noted pitchers like Adam Mazur, who were supposed to have great control but then came up and didn’t. In contrast, the control from Abel was very much not expected. Baseball America has given him a 40 control grade before each of the last two seasons, while all of his other marks have been 55 or better. His minor league statistics give a clear understanding of him as a high-walk pitcher, and there doesn’t seem to be any ambiguity about it, season to season.

Abel was more hyped, but I’m reminded of DJ Herz, who sadly is out with Tommy John. Herz walked 211 over 321 innings in the minor leagues, but had an improved 36 in 88.2 innings for the Nationals last year, in what was an overall creditable effort. Where the comparison with Abel really gains some traction, though, is in noting 13 SO/0 BB and 10 SO/0 BB games that Herz had last year. A pitch-mix change was supposed to be at the center of his improved control, if I remember correctly.

5/19 N3: Using Statcast data, Mets reliever Max Kranick ranks on opposite sides for the speed of his slider (89.6 MPH, 13th of 247) and his whiff rate with it (16.0%, 13th-worst of 219). In fact, if you restrict to Statcast’s qualifiers for slider whiff rate, which restricts the field to 89, Kranick is dead last.

There seem quite a few notes to add here. First, wading through these data, with the abundance of relievers and low-sample guys, is always a messy undertaking, but it seems to me Kranick is not typical. I think there is a positive correlation between slider speed and whiff rate. One thinks of Edwin Diaz, who throws it at 88.5. Among those ahead of Kranick on the list for velocity are Hunter Brown, Tarik Skubal and Tyler Glasnow. Whether we define the delta in terms of movement or speed, I guess you want a high total of one for the other, and I know Statcast has a leaderboard that shows that thing exactly. When it just comes to throwing straight, ranking in the 74th percentile with a 95.5 MPH fastball, Kranick is only marginally a hard thrower, so I’m guessing he may be sacrificing movement for speed, and I guess throwing a pitch that moves more looks like a cutter.

Whatever it is, he leans on it, throwing it 89% of the time. Baseball Savant also says it’s worked better for him than his fastball, despite the slider’s whiff rate. His Breaking Run Value is in the 89th percentile, his fastball run value in the 44th percentile.

He’s been an extreme pitch-to-contact guy so far, 27 innings, 3 walks, 17 strikeouts. Challenges hitters, you might say.

5/19 N4: A National League-leading 43 singles for Trea Turner, but maybe not a lot else at the plate. But just in the way that my father used to watch a movie every night for a week and then go without movies for the rest of the year, I think Turner goes through phases.

5/19 N5: A separation point? From 2022-2024, there were 33 players in the 60-69 HR bracket, but just 12 in the 70-79 range. But maybe that was a bit of a fluke, as the number from 80-89,10, holds rather stubborn. Guys like Judge (157), Ohtani (132), and Schwarber (131) were obviously in another dimension.

5/19 N6: Geraldo Perdomo and Andy Pages sitting 4th and 5th in the NL in bWAR. Pages has 11 Defensive Runs Saved. It seems his bWAR, and maybe his DRS, have been skyrocketing since the Teoscar Hernandez injury resulted in Pages seemingly playing every day in right. He was mostly in center before that.

5/20 N1: An interesting side-by-side between Phil Niekro’s ordinary ERA+ of 111 in 1977, and his outstanding 8.9 bWAR. I believe the only three things that can separate a bWAR and an ERA+ are unearned runs, workload, and adjustment for team defense, so let’s go through those elements to understand.

As a knuckleballer, I would think Niekro would only move back with the adjustment of using runs and not unearned runs for WAR, since runs linked to passed balls go in the unearned category. However, 10.8% of Niekro’s 1977 runs were unearned, versus the 11.1% NL average, so he didn’t lose any ground on account. (Over his career, Niekro did give up 13.9% unearned runs, although that actually doesn’t seem like that many more than expected.)

On the second point, workload, Niekro’s innings total of 330.1 gave him a comfortable lead over everyone else in the NL. However, with just about an 11% edge on league average, without doing the math, I am skeptical just how many extra wins could be manufactured out of that. It does help to some extent that, since this is wins over replacement, he’s being compared to a pitcher whose index is under 100, not one of 100.

But the role of team defense was the interesting aspect of this to me. Given Niekro’s bWAR/ERA+ numbers, if his team, the Braves, didn’t score as very bad in team defense, I was going to be puzzled. Indeed, their Defensive Runs Saved were in fact “runs added,” at 138. No other team was worse than -45.

-138 is 0.85 runs a game. So, if we made Niekro’s E.R.A. 3.18 instead of the 4.03 it was, then that 8.9 bWAR starts to make more sense.

While no Brave was better than +3, three Braves, with totals of -26, -25, and -24, respectively, really stood out for their poor DRS. Those three totals make up half the complete negative sum. All three players were young, which surprised me, because we seem to live in this world where the young, athletic, good defensive Tampa Bay Rays are always before us.

Right fielder Jeff Burroughs was the first of them. He was just 26, but not someone one would really think of us as a young player: the AL MVP in 1974, he was then only able to hit .226 and .237 in 1975 and 1976. But the Braves still went all in on him to acquire him before ‘77 like he was Nationals Juan Soto.

With the help of Fulton County Stadium, where his OPS was 212 points better than on the road, Burroughs did hit 41 home runs, but had a bWAR of just 0.7, and didn’t make the All-Star team.

At -25 DRS was 24-year-old Jerry Royster. Royster divided his starts among third (38 g), short (37 g), and second (30g).

These 24 extra runs allowed on defense were joined by -36 Batting Runs. Royster had a .278 OBP from a .216 average, with 6 home runs in 445 at-bats. Those are all numbers that have to be downgraded because of the 112 Park Factor.

Since he led the team with 28 steals, I can certainly see why he was given an opportunity to play, but since his success rate was 74%, those steals didn’t help his WAR. (Compared to the rest of the team, who stole bases at a 56% clip, Royster did steal efficiently, though,)

You put everything together, and Royster had -4.0 bWAR, the worst number in major league history. I don’t know that we can be that precise, and after a certain point, it seems all the same to me; if you’re really the worst, you should be benched, and not be able to add to your negative WAR, and it’s sort of academic who wasn’t benched. Because of this attitude, I actually intended to just do the search from 1973-1983, but I goofed, put in all years, and found Royster was the all-time worst. Oh well.

He may be an inspiration for those who have known heavy debt, as he finished his career in the black at 2.4. It was a 16-year career, and he was with the Braves consecutively from 1976-1984. “Honest and professional” comes to mind.

Our third negative 20+ guy, also the youngest of the players at 22, was Pat Rockett, and he only needed 84 games in the field to get to -24. Every defensive position has its challenges, there really aren’t any easy ones, but asking somebody to play shortstop who isn’t up to the job makes for a special kind of exposure, surely.

Although he brought no pop to the table, Rockett was able to put up a .330 OBP on a .254 average. When his encore performance in 1978 was .141 and 2 extra-base hits in 41 starts, however, even an improved .970 fielding average couldn’t save him, and the 1973 first-round pick was done as a major league player (in fact only lasting professionally through 1980).

The Braves did seemingly get a solid defensive performance at short from veteran Darrel Chaney, ironically, when they weren’t playing Rockett or Royster there. Not only was Chaney’s +3 DRS the best on the team at any position, it was the best mark of his 11-year career (I have a piece, hopefully coming out today, and I dedicate most of footnote 36 to Chaney). Chaney started 34 games at short, as well as 20 at second.

Returning to Rockett, one is always curious how much of a defensive deficiency is obvious and captured by errors, and how much is not. To this point, note that Rockett continued to only play short in 1978, and that it was the collapse of his offense that seemingly led to his defenestration. But anyway, Rockett fielded .940 in 1977, making 23 errors in 84 games.

The Braves as a whole committed 42 errors at short, 10 over the league average. The only team topping them was the Padres, who made 45 shortstop errors. 1974 number-one overall pick Bill Almon was the culprit, making 41. A rookie shortstop took over for him in San Diego in 1978, one Ozzie Smith. Almon did move to 3rd, where his fielding percentage actually deteriorated further (.933, vs. .954 in 1977).

The team error standings were much like the shortstop error standings, with San Diego on top at 189, and the Braves third at 175. With -29 DRS, the Padres were nothing like the Braves there, however. Historically, futility and the Padres have gone hand and hand, and this was a 69-93 Padres team (although Smith’s advent would coincide with the first winning record in franchise history).

If I understand the theory of pitcher bWAR correctly, the Braves defense could have done even more damage to a pitcher more reliant on it than Niekro, who led the NL with 262 strikeouts.

I toyed with getting some feel for that by looking at other Braves’ starting pitchers. With looking at their bWARs, ERA+s, and strikeout rates, in other words.

But here I saw just how dysfunctional these Braves were, whether it was Ted Turner madness, bad luck, or lack of talent. In looking at the starting staff, you have a brief thought that Niekro’s iron-man role meant that he was in fact the only one starting games (like something out of the 1880s record book), but of course there were 119 other starts to account for. Only Dick Ruthven started as many as 23. Although the innings totals are too high for it to check out, one almost thinks one is looking at the beginning of the “opener” trend, as 12 Braves started 5 games or more. These were often not guys tried for a month or two and then sent down, as four of them (Buzz Capra, Max Leon, Don Collins, and Jamie Easterly) had more relief appearances than starts.

It doesn’t seem like much of a way to run a pitchiing staff. Those 1990s babies worrying about whether they pitched the 6th or the 7th needed to stop crying, looking at the approach taken with these Braves’ pitchers.

The 1977 Braves lost 101 games, which set a record for them in Atlanta. They had had a winning record as recently as the record-setting Hank Aaron 1974 season (88 wins, 14 behind the Dodgers), and I would describe this period generally as charitably a mediocre one for them (although really probably more of a “D+” period). Bobby Cox came in for a first tenure of duty as manager the next year and was not able to turn things around. Cox lasted four years, during which the Braves played .452 baseball.

I am in thrall to the hitting boost that Fulton County gave during this time, and you might ask how, if at all, that enters into the discrepancy between Niekro’s ERA+ and his bWAR. The answer is that it doesn’t, because home stadium is already factored into ERA+. To this point, Niekro’s basic E.R.A. of 4.03 was a little worse than the National League 3.91, but he had a 111 ERA+.

5/20 N2: I guess since the Phillies also have Edmundo Sosa, he will not be next up for a chance, but Lehigh Valley third baseman Otto Kemp has 103 total bases, quite a ways ahead of everyone else in the International League. That is before we even get to his 13 hit-by-pitches, part of the secret to his .426 OBP. The Phillies 22nd prospect according to Baseball America before the season, going by their grades, Kemp’s bat was considered perhaps more of a question than his glove. He’ll be 26 in September.

5/20 N3: A .446 OBP for Roman Anthony in AAA, so hasn’t been any regression there.

5/20 N4: This is a bit random, but I used to listen to Bob Valvano’s radio show, and he was unusual in that time (~2003) coming at things as a non-stats person but as a complete intellectual. And one of the things he wanted to know of guests like Rob Neyer was, when is the batting sample big enough that I can trust the numbers?

There is no real answer to that question, let alone an absolute one, but as a long introduction, I am thinking of this in contrast to a more absolute measure like “sprint speed.” Dane Myers is hitting .337 and he might not be a good average hitter at all, but when we see Chandler Simpson and his now 30.0 ft/sec mark, we are confident that is going to hold.

That said, it has been educational to track this for him since he’s come up, to see that even sprint speed does have imprecision around it and needs to stablize. What was I quoting Simpson’s number as being in his first week? Like at about 28 ft/sec, or about the 70th percentile?

5/20 N5: Cristopher Sanchez has had more strikeouts than innings in 6 of his 9 starts this year, with another start where his strikeouts matched his innings.

Interesting to see a starter who doesn’t throw four-seamers at all nonetheless striking out hitters.

5/20 N6: Just 21.2% strikeouts from Kyle Schwarber, a man who just missed three straight 200 strikeout seasons from 2022-2024, certainly is notable. As the MLB average is currently 22.0%, Schwarber is under it

5/20 N7: Luis Arraez has a combination I think you rarely see, where he both has a high chase rate (17th highest of 165 qualifiers), and a high percentage of strikes seen (2nd highest of those qualifiers). You’d think, with his propensity to chase, pitchers would want to stay out of the strike zone.

I guess they feel confident he’s not going to hit a home run, is part of why they throw him strikes. Or maybe they’re overly focused on the benefits of the “swing and miss” when they go outside the strike zone, not a likely prospect with Arraez, and not enough on the potential benefits that still presumably come with throwing him balls outside the strike zone, where when he hits them, he is likely to hit them less hard and not on a line.

5/20 N8: Jose Soriano is tied for first in the American League in walks, and Yusei Kikuchi is 3rd, yet with E.R.A.s of 3.57 and 3.50, the Angels’ teammates are pitching fairly well.

5/21: A baseball grammatical conundrum….I don’t like to say of a team, for example, that “their pitching staff gave up 750 runs on the season” because that’s not technically correct. We are mindful now that it wasn’t just the team’s pitching staff, but their pitching staff and defense, that gave up those runs. But I think it is also wrong, and not just something not said, to say, “Their pitching staff and defense allowed 750 runs.” This makes it seem like the two things were not working together. It makes it sound like sometimes their pitching was giving up runs, and sometimes their defense. We need to be able to refer to the defense as a whole.

So I guess the best is to just say, “Their defense gave up 750 runs on the season.” In that case, I do think you run up against the fact that that’s not said, which is very much a problem. We have the idea that a pitching staff is active and identifiable and capable of giving something up, while a “baseball defense” is amorphous. I’m not sure if this is because “defense” in baseball often suggests just the non-pitcher fielders, or what, and that that maybe leads to confusion. But I don’t think referring to a baseball defense in this way, categorically, is wrong. In football or in basketball and in other sports, we could absolutely say the equivalent.

Anyway, for now, I reserve the right to do any old thing on any occasion, but these are the considerations in my mind.

5/22 N1: I wrote after Nick Pivetta’s last start about the oddity of striking out 7 men with only 9 whiffs, as the major league rate appears to be less than 1 strikeout for every 2 whiffs. On Wednesday, Tylor Megill had an even higher ratio with 10 strikeouts on 11 whiffs. My instinct as well is that the higher the total number of whiffs, the more interesting an above-average ratio is, so Megill gets the nod for exemplifying this kind of game.

With a 31.0% k rate, Megill continues to be an outstanding under-the-radar strikeout pitcher in general. He’ll be hard pressed to throw 162 innings, so I suppose that’s a weakness, but he does easily lead the Mets in totals strikeouts.

There was talk from the Mets’ announcers before the Red Sox game of putting him back in the bullpen because of the Mets’ high number of starting pitching options. The proverbial numbers game. Ironically, the Mets seem to have the perfect bullpen candidate in Clay Holmes, but I guess they are not going to mess around with Holmes after he has gone through the difficulty of converting. Plus Holmes is a more established pitcher than Megill and that gives him priority, although I don’t know that he’s really better as a starter than Megill.

Right now, Mets pitchers anyway seem like 49ers at their best, take your pick of positions (running back, quarterback), where it seems anybody can come in and do a great job. The equivalent of the offensive line in the analogy is unclear, however. Maybe there’s a great pitch caller behind the scenes. Or a great defense, although the Mets lead MLB in FIP.

5/22 N2: So, for the list of 2 home run games with a steal this year, we have Elly De La Cruz, Jordan Beck, Masyn Winn…and now Jake Burger.

Of course, he was a highly unlikely candidate, as the base he stole off the Yankees was just the 3rd of his 383-game career, but the last time Burger stole a base, last August 21, he also homered.

5/22 N3: Similar slash lines this year:

Anthony Santander (184 PA): .188/.266/.327

Christian Yelich (203 PA): .184/.276/.324

Because Yelich had the back surgery last summer, we assume they belong in different categories, and that Santander will be able to increase his OPS to a productive level. But Yelich’s OPS was actually 95 points better than Santander’s last year, and was better in 2023, too. I’ve never used the phrase “just saying” before, but this might be the time to break it out.

5/22 N4: Maybe it’s not a surprise that the Phillies are second-to-last in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved, but it is that Brandon Marsh, at -7 runs, scores as one of the league’s worst defenders. First, Marsh has missed time, starting only 23 of the team’s 51 games. Then, he has 3 outfield assists, so this seems to be an indictment of range. First and foremost, Marsh was +7 runs last year, and +5 over his three seasons prior to that.

The defensive numbers of the Phillies other man in center, Johan Rojas, also are not flattering. Respect for Rojas’s talent is great, so maybe this points to a methodological issue, and not that Marsh has really been in a bad fielding slump. Rojas is -1 Defensive Runs Saved this year, after being +4 with 103 starts last year, and +14 with just 38 starts in 2023.

5/23 N1: Good sabermetrician that I am, mostly because he has 34 strikeouts against 6 walks in 22.1 IP, I tend to believe in Jeff Hoffman. One would also tend to think that his .371 men-on allowed average will tend to converge with his .140 allowed average when no one is on, over time. And it was a dose of reality seeing that, if his number of pitches this year, 352, instead represented a number his number of batters faced, we still might regard it as less than a stable sample.

That said, I can’t really defend his 6.04 E.R.A., or say that he has in fact pitched well. Yes, 5 runs given up on May 13 were a statistics killer, and yes, it is probably atypical for a reliever to have more outings in which he’s given up multiple runs than just one run (with Hoffman, it’s four outings giving up multiple runs, two giving up 1). But let’s say he’d only given up 1 run all six times he’s given up a run (which is really to say, that he’g been a completely different pitcher than he’s been). His E.R.A. would still be 2.42, which is to say, hardly at the 0.90 Huascar Brazoban level.

5/23 N2: Going through some statistics, I found that the model that starters work under normal conditions, while relievers work with runners in scoring position, is curiously not outdated. I thought it would be, because starters never complete games any more, coming out generally when their pitch count hits a certain number. But apparently, this tendency for them to truly be relieved from time to time when they are in crisis has a big effect on the overall numbers, in terms of percentage of batters faced with runners in scoring position.

This year, that’s 22.0% of batters faced with runners in scoring position for starters, 30.7% for relievers.

In terms of percentage of batters faced with a runner on 1st only, there is no difference, with both groups at about 18%, and within 0.1% of each other.

An interesting interaction is that starters’ numbers, at least if we make slugging average our lodestar, are better with runners in scoring position, while relievers’ numbers are better with the bases empty.

Starters: RISP SA .388, Bases Empty SA .409

Relievers: RISP SA .409, Bases Empty SA .373

That’s a big difference. Since it’s 21 points in one direction in one category, and 36 points in the other direction in the other category, it’s a 56-point total difference.

If we just use Isolated Power, the interaction is certainly there, but if we just use batting average, it is as well.

Starters: RISP BA .244, Bases Empty BA .244

Relievers: RISP BA .256, Bases Empty BA .233

I am lacking time and energy right now, but when my patience returns, I should certainly hunt previous, full seasons, to see if these trends maintain. They might not be as strong or even disappear, who knows, but I have a strong guess that this is more than just a quirk or a sampling issue, however.

I think the clue is actually in the difference of PCT of RISP batters faced. Specifically, I think those relievers who are coming in to face hitters with men in scoring position are often the middle relievers, and that’s why the split shows as being less effective. The closer group, if you think about how managers like to give them a clean 9th, works disproportionately without men in scoring position. And then, when they get the first guys out, as they typically do, they continue without men in scoring position.

Because of a limitation in Baseball Reference and FanGraphs splits, I couldn’t figure slugging average with just a man on first base directly for starters and relievers, so I had to estimate that. I think I was able to get a fairly good estimate, though, and this showed that the “1st only” data repeat the bases empty data: relievers again with a .373 SA allowed, while starters had a .407 SA allowed.

5/23 N3: Daulton Varsho maybe not carrying the Blue Jays (players never do), but certainly sparking them. They are over .500 now overall, they are 11-6 since he got well, and he already has a 1.0 bWAR.

If you remember my long notes early in the season about Riley Greene, Jimmie Foxx, and Hornsby, where I explored 2:1 SA/BA ratios, noting that these denoted real achievement when the batting average is at a good level, I am of course intrigued by Varsho’s current .615/.215, or 40 total bases on 14 hits (11 XBH, 3 singles).

At .508/.225, the lately-much-discussed Taylor Ward is also having this kind of season.

5/23 N4: So far, Sacramento deserves its reputation as a seriously distorting factor. The Park Factor, both hitter and pitcher, is 123.

5/23 N5: The Cubs don’t regret the Kyle Tucker trade, but so far the skepticism I expressed about Isaac Paredes at that time was misplaced. He has a very nice slash line of .264/.374/.473. His OPS of .846 is 2023 Paredes (.840), the year he hit 31 home runs, not 2024 Paredes (.739).

He’s obviously a very distinctive player, from a profile point of view, who stands out not so much for his ability but his traits and approach. A couple of these distinctive elements are a good BB/SO ratio which has always been between 0.88 (this year) and 0.56 since 2021. This year’s overall MLB number is 0.40.

Then, that might tantalize and make you think Paredes could hit for average, but so far he hasn’t. He has to overcome that career .248 BAbip, versus the .292 average. His best BAbip was only .280, in the COVID-shortened season.

5/23 N6: Only 6 current players with an OBP over .400, and there don’t seem to be a lot of candidates to end up there.

Juan Soto is at .374. I am definitely getting strong San Diego vibes, but it’s hard to rationally contend he won’t do it.

Other than that, we’re probably looking at the uber-power hitters (Judge, Ohtani, and Schwarber) as the potential .400 OBP guys.

Bryce Harper, I guess He’s at .379 right now.

Freddie Freeman is at .427. With a .368 batting average, it seems he’s had to work awfully hard to do that. He did beat .400 in his first two seasons with the Dodgers, and then last year had plenty of excuses when he didn’t.

Will Smith is very intriguing for being at .455, 99 points over his career average.

If Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can keep his walk rate at 13.8%, I’d say he has a good shot. That’s the best of his career.

Bobby Witt was at .389 last year. Even if he just does it by riding batting average, I expect him to make a run.

So, looking at this list, I guess the biggest surprise is that we only have six players currently doing it, when it seems the early date should mean we have more.

5/23 N7: You know how Mariano Rivera was the lone #42 in the game at the end of his career? In the same way, I am very much not for adding on “Jr.” to names. What is the point? In many cases, like LaMonte Wade, we have not heard of senior. If I want to learn of him, I’ll do that on my own time, thank you. I don’t need to be constantly reminded of my negliglence. And don’t even get me started on players who insist on going by “Sr.” I will definitely learn about your kid on my own time, if at all.

But even with a Bobby Witt or a Fernando Tatis, I am against the “Jr.” suffix because there is absolutely no confusion without it. Bobby Witt was a pitcher, and Tatis Sr. isn’t walking in that locker room door, unless it is as a coach.

Generally, if we start allowing one “junior,” we have to allow them all. I would rather have none than a litany. I would rather take the LaMonte cue and go from there, than do the reverse, and say that if we accept “Witt Jr.,” we must accept “Wade Jr”, too.

But I just confronted writing the current Vladimir Guerrero without the Junior, and I just couldn’t do it. Senior was too great, and it feels truly disrespectful.

Vladdy will not be the first Junior with a famous father, certainly. (In fact, it seems there are ever more athletes following in the footsteps.) So, what I would propose is a commissioner’s exemption that can be granted, or a rule that sons of Hall of Famers get to be identified with a “Jr.”, if we want to make the demarcation less emotional.

Although, a skeptic might say, the emotion and the ruckus is my entire point and motivation. The retiring, normal souls do not care.

5/23 N8: Things not trending in the right direction for Darren Baker. Has a .542 OPS in 40 games this year at Rochester, after his OPS was .688 there in 2024, and .678 in 2023. The International League OPS is .743. Baker only has 6 minor league home runs in 386 games, so unless he hits for average, and this year he’s at .214, he’s not competitive offensively.

5/23 N9: Before age-30 season, only Walter Johnson struck out more than Sam McDowell, yet when McDowell was on the Hall of Fame ballot in 1981, he failed to get a single vote.

The 2000-strikeout club before age-30 season.

(1) Walter Johnson 2305

(2) Sam McDowell 2281

(3) Bert Blyleven 2250

(4) Felix Hernandez 2142

(5) Clayton Kershaw 2120

(6) Don Drysdale 2111

(7) Nolan Ryan 2085

(8) Sandy Koufax 2079

(9) Bob Feller 2000

Of those eight other pitchers, only Ryan (109) had a worse E.R.A.+ than McDowell’s 115, but McDowell was 1st in the American League in ERA+ in 1965, he was 2nd in 1968, and he was 3rd in 1970. He also won three FIP titles in his time with the Indians.

He was highly enough regarded to be traded for Gaylord Perry and likely throw-in shortstop Frank Duffy after 1971, a season in which the ominous signs in his performance included a fall-off from his career 2.14 SO/BB mark entering 1971 to 1.25 in 1971. Perry was not just a future great, but had won 58 games from 1969-1971, 4th-most in the National League, and had had a 130 ERA+, 6th-best among National Leaguers with 486 innings.

After the trade, McDowell had 19 wins left; Perry, 180.

I struggle to put McDowell’s speciality into perspective and to find the words that give it its due. We all have our favorites, but his record keeps drawing me back. Choose your adjective and add an escalatory adverb if you want, but I don’t think anyone can at least deny he was remarkable.

The Hall of Fame vote total could indicate that he was underrated, and certainly we must now give more of a look to players with very low win totals like McDowell’s (141) as we turn to thinking about peak and not just longevity. A FIP perspective is also more fully formed.

But the reason I think McDowell, or a modern version today, probably only showing half that many wins, would get some Hall of Fame votes is because I think there are more voters who will make a statement with their vote. They are doubtless a very low number, but I think you have voters who will do the work for everyone, who will have consciousness about a player’s ultimate vote total, and about how that is an important part of the record, and that a guy like McDowell should get some votes, and certainly shouldn’t be left with zero. When we look at a Mantle’s not being on 43 ballots, I guess one could alternatively argue that voters have just gotten more lenient in general. But it does seem like Hall of Fame voting is the one province where there is not increasing consensus verging on unanimity on the important elements, and where there is some interesting variability across the ballot.

5/24 N1: Early days for him in 2025, but 5.1 BBs-per-9 for Brayan Bello so far this year, after 3.5 in 2024, and 2.6 in 2023.

5/24 N2: So far, Jackson Jobe hasn’t been striking people out. It might just take him some time to figure out how to use his stuff. There weren’t as many strikeouts to go around then, but a young Justin Verlander didn’t strike guys out, either (in his Rookie of the Year 2006, he had just 124 in 186 innings).

5/24 N3: 6 innings, only 9 whiffs, but 7 strikeouts for Nick Pivetta on Friday against the Braves, a replica from his last start (these are ESPN numbers; Baseball Reference curiously is a bit different on the whiffs). He had 3 strikeouts looking against the Braves, while he had 4 against the Mariners.

5/24 N4: In the Angels-Marlins Friday tilt, neither Yusei Kikuchi nor Sandy Alcantara made it through the 6th, but both threw 100+ pitches.

This prompted research. I’m surprised that, in 39.1% of the starts this year when a pitcher has thrown 100+ pitches, he has gone less than 6 innings.

I am also very surprised, by the way, that there have been only 174 100+ starts. That’s not even 6 a team. The standard has slipped (quietly, at least for me) from 100 to 90, it would seem.

Ron Washington dreaming postseason dreams, Kikuchi’s 110 pitches on Friday put him in a four-way tie for the most pitches in a start this year, Hunter Greene’s 114 over 6 against the Nationals on May 2 leading the way.

5/24 N5: It occurs to me that probably most of the 31-22% disparity in RISP batters faced for relievers versus starters can be explained by the free runner in extra innings. Only relievers, of course, pitch the extra innings. My guess is 85% of extra-inning plate appearances have a runner in scoring position. A home run is really the main thing that resets the deck.

It’s easy to find an extra inning count of BF, and then if you took those all out of the reliever column, you could redo the reliever RISP percentage. But, as I said, because a few extra inning BF are not with RISP, to be precise, one would have to go to FanGraphs for their splits, which are more all-encompassing than Baseball References, but tend to drive me up a wall as the various splits can be found everywhere, and seem to always be resetting. But they would let one look at relievers in XI and RISP/non RISP there, I think.

I have to get better with FanGraphs splits.